Though they predate the professional military unit, irregular troops- be they militias, mobs, self-defense groups, paramilitaries, gunmen, terrorists, or “armed pro-Russian activists”- have rarely been more visible than in 2014. Such armed association have, at times, seemed more relevant than many nation-state actors. Irregulars toppled Gidaffi, irregulars threaten the political unity of Iraq, and irregulars fight on both sides of the Syrian civil war. Further north, Russian forces recently used irregulars to capture the isthmus of Crimea, and Ukranian Army forces continue to battle against armed separatists in the East of the country.
Mobile, cheep to field and easy to deny, irregular forces are the ideal tool for applying force in today’s information-centric world. Had uniformed Russian soldiers stormed the Crimean Parliament in February, the global response would have been swift and strong. No one would have blamed Ukraine for shooting back. The confusion caused by the lack of identification bought pro-Russian forces in Ukraine the time they needed to consolidate their gains, and shielded them from a military response (paradoxically, so did their obvious association with Moscow). Political dissidents and non-Russians faced intimidation and violence. Ethnic Tartars have been especially vulnerable. Now, similar groups openly battle government forces in the East of the country, while Russia sits behind its cloak of outrageous deniability.
In Iraq, the young post-war regime has continued to destabilize, as Sunni militants seize control of city after city from the Iraqi security forces, many of whom seem to have withdrawn in advance of the militants’ assault. Sunni militant group ISIS is leading the charge in an apparent attempt to crate a Sunni state which straddles the boarder of Iraq and Syria. Local police have also fled the affected cities, leaving them completely in the hands of ISIS and their allies.
The Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has shown it’s self less than equal to the task of confronting the insurgency which they have provoked. The consistent brutality of the Iraqi security forces towards Sunni communities has undone the diplomatic work that the Pentagon and the State Department did in getting Sunni leaders on side after the civil war of the mid-2000s, and now they are paying for it.
The response from Bagdad thus far has been to call on young Shiite men to volunteer in Shia militias, deepening sectarian divisions and making it more likely than ever that Iraq will be split into Kurdish, Sunni, and Shiite zones. The Shia Mahdi Army, which fought against US forces in the early days of the Iraqi occupation, is on parade in the streets of Bagdad as they prepare to join the fighting on the side of the government.
The threat from ISIS, disowned by the Al Qaeda network earlier this year, has been incubating in the lawlessness of the Syrian civil war. Their success and territorial gains in Syrian’s Eastern frontier have brought them resources and recruits. Funded by a mix of smuggling and oil revenue from captured fields in Syria, ISIS is building a legitimate proto-state, and meeting with success on the battlefield. If they can offer a legitimate alternative for Sunni communities the same way that the Kurdish militia networks do for Kurds, then the governments of Iraq and Syria may face a true existential threat. If these states are to survive, they must find a way to transition into inclusive, multi-cultural institutions where consensus among stakeholders can be reached through political processes, rather than forced on the battlefield.
Where ever these institutions and these process fail to achieve consensus, however, we will again see the irregular, reminding us all of the fragility of our civilized society.
Keep your hands up and protect yourself at all times, this has been Rabbit Punch Politics!
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