In the News: Syrian Weapons Deal, Pot-Smoking Candians, Weiner's Woes

When the idea first came up that Syria could avoid a military strike by turning over their stockpile of chemical weapons, I did not take it seriously.  Apparently Putin, Obama, and Assad did, and Obama is just shitting himself with relief.  He had no good options open to him, and had talked himself into a corner.  Truth be told, Assad’s chemical massacre probably did merit a response, but the time to intervene was two years ago, before Assad had turned street demonstrations into a bloody sectarian civil war.



Russia's new plan is a win-win, really.  The West gets to back off without looking like we’re backing down, while Putin and Assad avoid direct Western intervention in Syria.  The only losers are virtually everyone else in Syria and the surrounding region.

If Syria is indeed prepared to turn over their stockpile of chemical weapons, then Putin must have convinced Assad that these weapons are more trouble than they're worth.  If the West backs down from military action here, Assad will know that he is safe from outside interference, and will set about crushing the opposition in a long and bloody campaign that will never really end.



Meanwhile, in Assad-allied Iran, the Ayatollahs' choice of loyal party man and friend of the reform movement Hassan Rouhani as the new President of the Islamic Republic is meant to be a sharp departure from the hardline Ahmadinejad regime, a public face more acceptable to both foreign antagonists and local dissidents.  More of a PR overhaul than a true change in course from the Ayatollahs, we'll see what effect Rouhani's election has on the nuclear issue.  Iran is keen to get out from under crippling economic sanctions, and Rouhani is the man tasked with making it happen. 

The question is, now that they have opened the floodgates, just a little bit, will they be swept away by their people’s growing desire for a freer, more democratic society?



It’s funny to think that the authoritarian, one-party regimes of China and Iran are running scared of their people, and showing more responsiveness to their needs and concerns than the more open, democratic societies are.  Could it be because there’s one clear party to blame when things go tits-up?



China and Iran are two nations I see liberalizing rapidly in our lifetime, from the bottom up.

On the lighter side of things, Rob Ford, Toronto's 300 pound, crack-smoking, gang-banging, bicyclist-hating mayor has joined a chorus of Canadian public officials in admitting that he has smoked “a lot” of pot.  

To be fair, I don’t think that Rob Ford is the kind of guy who does anything just a little bit.

And finally, I think everyone needs to back off of Anthony Weiner.  If you have a legitimate comment or criticism pertaining to the man’s policies, then please, air them.  If all you're going to do is abuse the man for things which are none of your business, things you have no business judging him for, things that have no impact on his performance as a public servant, then do the rest of us a favor and go home, don’t vote for him, and most importantly, STFU.



What the heck is wrong with "sexting" anyway? Infidelity is one thing, but sexting? Infidelity is a personal matter, and thus nun’yo bidness, but sexting it's self should not even be an issue.



The fact that people care so much about Anthony Weiner's sexting is more of an issue than Anthony Weiner's sexting.

Still, I don’t know how the guy thought he could win.  The repeated scandals and the news media’s character assassinations destroyed his chances before he ever got off the ground.

Where does Weiner stand on "stop-and-frisk?"  How about the minimum wage?  Does he plan to tackle the city's high cost of living?  How will he stimulate and maintain employment?  I don't know, but I do know that every time he got in a fight with some judgmental prick, the CNN slammed him all over my Facebook feed.



Hit the showers, Andy.  Time to slip quietly into the private sector.



That’s all for now, so until next time, keep those hands up, protect yourself at all times, and keep coming back for more Rabbit Punch!

US to Enter Syrian Conflict?

With the recent chemical massacre in Syria, the West seems ready to respond with overt force for the first time in Syria’s 2-years-and-counting civil war.  US warships have been moving into the region, Turkey is planning for a possible Syrian counterattack, and the rhetoric has taken on a threatening tone, shifting from “if” to “what.”



The US, France, the UK, and, to a lesser extent, Germany seem ready to spearhead another Libya-style military intervention.  Syria’s air-defense network is significantly stronger than Gidaffi’s was, making air strikes potentially more costly than the West would like, and I really don’t think that the West has any appetite to put boots on the ground (aside from SpecOps units who may or may not already be there), but a campaign of long-range missile strikes is looking more and more likely.



What’s interesting is that, according to the BBC, rebel groups with an Islamist tint to them are duck-and-covering at this news, warning their members not to congregate in large groups.  So just who are we shooting at, and who are we helping?  The FSA has claimed that it still hasn’t received any weapons from the West.  Not that I believe them, but that’s what they’re saying.  So who are we planning on empowering if we knock over Assad?



Which brings us to the question of scope.  Will any upcoming attacks be limited and surgical, or if we’re in for a penny, will that bring us in for a pound?  Small-scale strikes may serve to consolidate local support for the Assad regime, so it would seem to make sense to go all-in.  Of course, we still have not been given explicit objectives for any possible military interventions.  I think that the White House has already publicly ruled out regime change, so what are we after?  The destruction of the Assad regime, or just it’s ability to launch chemical attacks?  I feel like we’re going to see a more targeted campaign than some are calling for.

Russia is absolutely irate over the idea, but this strong diplomatic front is just cover for the fact that, if the West does get directly involved in the Syrian civil war, Russia will do very little about it.  While they may ramp up their logistical support for the Assad regime and it’s war effort, I don’t think that Russia will start shooting at us over it.



Russia is very, very good at controlling events and keeping other world powers at bay within their own geographical backyard, but not so good at getting their way outside of it.  Syria falls into a funny little grey zone.  Either way, I can only see Russia increasing their support of the Assad regime if the West launches a direct attack.



Of course, the elephant in the room is Iran.  Neither Russian nor Iran wants to see Tehran's cat's paw in Damascus fall, and the idea of a Western presence that close to home worries them even more.  If not for our antagonistic relationship with Iran, I don't think that the US would have as strong an interest in getting involved against the Assad regime.  The Saudis and Qataris have been spurring Westerns involvement from the start, and I suspect that we've been supporting their arming of rebel groups.

Will we hit Syria by Labor Day?  Will we be holding our cookouts in the shadow of yet another war overseas?  Only time will tell, but they sure are acting like it’s going to happen.



Hands up, protect yourselves at all times out there, this has been the Rabbit Punch.

2016 3-Year Prediction

Hilary in the blue over Christie in the red, but it's going to be gosh darn close.

Also in the mix are Biden, Ryan (although he may be a better VP pick), and nearly any GOP Governor.  I've even heard O'Malley's name thrown out there, which would be cool. 

Maybe in 2020, Marty.  I'd vote for you.

Today in the News

Egyptian Army Attacks Pro-Democracy Protestors

The Egyptian military has continued to reassert their control after overthrowing democracy and undoing the progress of the Jan 25th Revolution in a military coup earlier this year.  After more than a month of political arrests and mass killings, the Army has finally gone all-in, storming pro-democracy protest camps with live rounds, killing anywhere form hundreds to thousands of Egyptians in the process.  The demonstrators, who have been protesting the removal of President Muhammad Morsi by the Army earlier this July, have fled the camps in the face of the assaults by the security forces, but have vowed to return to the streets.

Egypt was, briefly, a democratic nation, but now has been returned to a repressive police state, ruled by the bullet, rather than the ballot.  Even Tamarod darling and perennial opposition figure Muhamed ElBaradei has quit his post in government over the bloodshed, with more and more international and domestic pro-democracy activists lining up against the military every day.

Also in the news, Japan has been accused of "white-washing" it's WWII history, the controversy centering around a visit by members of Japan's government to a Memorial to the War Dead, whom the BBC refers to as "convicted war criminals."

Yeah, I'll accept that kind of criticism from the West when the US and UK fully own up to their own war crimes.  How about a great big display on US war crimes in Viet Nam right in front of the Memorial Wall?  I think not.

After all, it was the US who pardoned much of the Hirohito administration and put them back to work running the new Japan.  Including current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's father, Shintaro Abe.

Why is it alright for the West to politicize Japan's War Dead Memorials, while our own remain sacred?  Why are we allowed our own white-washed versions of history, but not Japan?

This had been the Rabbit Punch.

7/3/13 Egyptian Coup

Switching gear again, I want to talk about the recent coup in Egypt.  If you’re just here for the sports, skip this post, I have several very nice sport-related ones [in our sister blog, Rabbit Punch: Sports].  If you’re here for the politics, here it is.

We here at Rabbit Punch feel that the recent military coup of 7/3/13 was a terrible thing for Egypt.  So many people worked so hard for so long and lost so much in order to oust the Mubarik-led military regime.  President Morsi then did what I had thought was impossible and wrenched real, functional power away from the hands of the military and put it, for the first time, in the hands of democratically elected institutions.  The military had been looking for an opportunity to take back control, and the Tamarod-led protests gave them the opportunity they needed to undo all of that monumental progress.  The Egyptian military has wasted no time in returning their brutal brand of repression to Egyptian streets; the military has already murdered and imprisoned hundreds of their political enemies.  But what do you expect from the regime that the CIA used to send our prisoners to so that their torture would be nice and “legal?”

And how are the Muslim Brotherhood to respond?  Abused for decades by the military regime, they worked just as long at establishing themselves as a legitimate political brand, finally culminating in victory in Egypt's first free and fair election.  They played by the rules, they worked within the system, and what reward did they get?  Their leaders thrown in jail, their legitimately elected President deposed at gunpoint, their HQ attacked by mobs, and their supporters murdered in the streets, denied the protection of the police and army, declared enemies once more in their own homes.

Islamist is not a dirty word.  Our guy in Baghdad, Malaki, he’s an Islamist.  As is our good friend Recep Tayyip aka Erdoğan in Turkey.  Am I a fan of social and religious conservatives in government?  Absolutely not.  But a socially conservative government does not justify the abolition of democracy.  The opposition should have waited for the next election cycle, or taken Morsi up on his offer of a coalition government.

The military’s attacks are going to push more and more members of this avowedly non-violent group into violence and extremism.

And what of all those Egyptians who cast a vote for Morsi, or for any candidate, really, honestly believing in democratic change?  Egypt has spat in their face, given them concrete evidence that their vote is meaningless.  The legitimacy of democracy it's self has been undermined by this coup.

And what about anyone else who has a problem with the government, or some other aspect of society?  It teaches them that rather than go through the democratic process, one should take to the streets, or take up arms.  Instead of bringing disparate groups into an open and collaborative democratic process, Egypt has proven to any potentially disaffected groups that peaceful, democratic methods of change will get you nowhere.  In Egypt, you do not take to the ballot, you take to the street or you take up arms.

The other theory that I’ve heard tossed around is that the military thought that Morsi was not being tough enough on militants in the Sinai, thus threatening Egypt’s security cooperation with Israel and the US, undermining Egyptian national security.  This cynical scenario does not read any better for the military or the protestors who unlocked the gates for them.

Morsi was ruling for all Egyptians.  He was making unprecedented strides towards a democratic society.  He was duly elected in free and fair elections.  He offered compromise at every step of the way, including offers to form a coalition government in the days before his illegal ousting.  The minority of Egyptians who opposed him asked too much.  They couldn’t even wait for the next election, they called upon the guns of the military to destroy the legitimate government, and in doing so have the lost popular, democratic control that their own candidates may have enjoyed and put the military, their former oppressors, back in control. 

I have yet to hear of any specific grievance against Morsi from his detractors (aside from the various BS charges the military is laying on him now).  If you have any, please, share them, I haven’t found them yet.

Dark days are coming for Egypt, marked by repression and violent divisions.  The most populous nation in Northern Africa may be a more fertile breeding ground for extremism than ever, thanks to the events of 7/3/13, Egypt’s Reverse-Independence Day.  What they had gained was Herculean; what they lost may never be recovered.

Keep those hands up, Egypt, and most definitely protect yourselves at all times.

This has been the Rabbit Punch.